Posts Tagged ‘Industry Standard’

Prediction markets, the Kindle & the Industry Standard

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

Prediction markets are speculative markets that are created for the purpose of making predictions. Basically, a prediction is made and then people bet on whether that prediction is likely or unlikely to take place. According to Wikipedia,

“People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.”

The most interesting thing (to me) is that prediction markets have proven to be quite accurate at determining the outcome of future events using the wisdom of crowds. And prediction markets are used in all kinds of industries, from finance to politics to entertainment.

Prediction markets are also used in the tech industry, where a prediction market was launched by The Industry Standard in February 2008. This is where I come in.

I’ve been writing for The Standard for awhile, but today marks the beginning of a new assignment – tackling the Industry Standard’s tech prediction market. I’ll be writing a couple of times a week about The Standard’s prediction market, and various technology predictions that are current on the site.

Amazon KindleMy first article debuts today discussing an upcoming announcement by Amazon. The company has announced an “important” press conference on February 9, but hasn’t released any details about what that press conference will entail, leading to widespread speculation that the company will release version 2 of the Kindle next week. So will Amazon launch Kindle 2.0 next week? The market is currently saying “yes.”

I’d like to invite you to participate in the Industry Standard’s prediction market with me. Come and vote for and against the tech predictions that are up on the site right now. And please comment, send me thoughts and suggestions, and provide your insights about the various predictions that are up on the site. I will always be looking for more ideas and topics for discussion.

Come and cast your vote at The Standard today.

The markets are down (again) so let’s talk about marketing instead

Wednesday, October 8th, 2008

My latest article has just been posted on The Industry StandardFive ways media companies can take advantage of the shift to performance-based media.

New dollar billWith the markets down 30% year-to-date and nations around the world joining the U.S. in an economic downward spiral, it might feel like anything related to the economy or spending money is bad news. But there are bright sides to any situation if you look at it from a different perspective, and this situation is no exception.

When the economy dips, and companies take a hit, one of their first budgets to be cut is often the marketing budget. Marketing can feel like unnecessary spending for businesses, and it’s easy to cut one month and then quickly pick up the next month again when the company is doing better.

During the dotcom bust of the early 2000’s, I was working for Publish magazine, a trade magazine/Website focused on “Internet communication.” That magazine, like many others (including The industry Standard) folded due to the bad economy and the cut that IT companies were making to their marketing budgets.

But those were the days before performance-based media. Google, the leader (and pioneer) of PPC and performance-based advertising, launched its AdSense program in October 2000, but it didn’t gain traction until 2002. At that time, marketing budgets were easy to cut because marketing execs couldn’t prove ROI on the money they were spending. But today, when $1 out is easily measured to x dollars back, I believe that companies that provide performance-based advertising options will be insulated (a bit) from the downturn.

This isn’t to say that companies will be entirely shielded. But when some amount of revenue is easily tied back to a smaller amount of spending, companies will not be inclined to cut that spending.

Dollar bill by reubenaingber

Online video advertising – stats and status

Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008

My latest article for The Industry Standard is now up online: Three online video formats for the future. In the article, I take a look at the current state of online video advertising, and make some suggestions about where video advertising might be able to head in order to stay relevant to the medium and to move beyond traditional ad formats.

In the course of researching for the article, I came across a lot of great online video stats. These are in addition to some earlier articles about online video that I posted to this blog. Those articles are here:

Online video stats for September 07
Video is not going to kill the Internet in 2010
Some more YouTube stats

The new data covers a wide variety of information, from online video usage to online video advertising metrics. I just am going to include it here because it’s great information for anyone who is following online video. I’ll also include links to all the sources so that you can explore the information in context.

Online Publishers AssociationOnline Video Advertising, Content and Consumer Behavior (PDF)
Online publishers association logo
This report contained a great deal of useful data, particularly about audience reception to online video advertising, including the following statistics:

  • Over 40% of U.S. online video users watch online video on at least a weekly basis; over 70% at least monthly.
  • 80% of U.S. online video users have watched an advertisement in an online video. Of those people, 52% took action after watching that video; 28% looked for more information; 19% clicked a banner ad that accompanied the video; and 16% bought something as a result of the ad.
  • 56% prefer that the advertisement is related to the video content.
  • Both 15- and 30-second pre-roll ads are effective at lifting brand awareness; 30-second ads outpace 15-second ads in “likeability.”

Advertising.comBi-Annual Online Video Study: First-Half 2007 vs. Second-Half 2006 (PDF)
Advertising.com logoThis study bills itself as the “who, what, when and what works of online video consumption and advertising.” The most surprising data from this study is the age range of online video consumers.

  • 31% of 18 to 34 year olds watch streaming video; 69% stream video more than once per week
  • 69% of consumers 35 and over watch streaming video; 47% stream video more than once per week
  • 95% of those surveyed are streaming video at home (vs. 4% at the office and 1% at school); 45% of streaming takes place in the evening.
  • 42% of consumers have forwarded a video clip to a friend
  • 94% of consumers would prefer to view ads than pay to watch a video
  • 63% of consumers would prefer ads that are shorter than television ads
  • Consumers are 8% more likely to view a 15-second advertisement through to completion (vs. a 30-second advertisement)
  • The 30-second pre-roll slightly outperforms the 15- and 5-second ads when measured in terms of click-through rate

BtoBInteractive Marketing Guide

Online video advertising spending

comScoreMore than 10 billion videos viewed online in the U.S. in February (08)
comScore logoThis is the most recent data that I could find – the highlights:

  • U.S. Internet users viewed more than 10 billion videos in February; this is a 3% gain vs. January, and a 66% gain from February 2007
  • 135 million U.S. Internet users spent an average of 204 minutes watching online video in February
  • 72.8% of U.S. Internet audience viewed an online video
  • The average online video duration was 2.7 minutes
  • The average online video viewer consumed 75 videos