It’s worth pointing out that downturns are dotted with strong rallies… the fact that the down will bounce is no guarantee that it won’t drop back even further down afterwards. Going back to the great depression (yeah, I know..), the stock market had 8 strong rallies before finally bottoming out having lost most of its value.

Also, don’t forget that the stock market is itself a giant prediction market - proof, if any was needed, that prediction markets are deeply fallible!