What prediction markets have to say about the Dow
The vast majority of the news about the economy is so dire these days, it’s unusual to hear something positive. But according to the prediction markets, the outlook for the Dow Jones is fairly optimistic. In fact, a majority of people are betting that the Dow will rise above the 8000 mark before the end of April. To read more about this positive news, take a look at the story that I wrote today for The Industry Standard: Prediction markets lead toward a Dow rebound.
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Tags: Dow Jones, prediction market, Stock market, The Industry Standard
February 26th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Interesting…
It’s worth pointing out that downturns are dotted with strong rallies… the fact that the down will bounce is no guarantee that it won’t drop back even further down afterwards. Going back to the great depression (yeah, I know..), the stock market had 8 strong rallies before finally bottoming out having lost most of its value.
Also, don’t forget that the stock market is itself a giant prediction market – proof, if any was needed, that prediction markets are deeply fallible!